Friday, July 25, 2008

Disturbing but for the wrong reasons

The FBI posts the top ten myths about itself. The intent is to reassure the public that it is not some sort of sinister spying organization. Some of them are fairly amusing, but I find the top two myths both contradictory and disturbing, though not for the reasons the FBI is worried about.

Myth number 2 is "The FBI has files on every American." The item goes on to claim that they only have a file on individuals suspected of being part of a terrorist organization or of having committed a specific crime. This is followed by number 1: "The FBI can't or shouldn't do intelligence." You can't live up to claim number 2 and still be able to live up to claim number 1. Being an effective intelligence requires having files on innocent people.

The job of a spy is to behave like an innocent person. They do a lot of things that are perfectly innocent in isolation but only reveal themselves as dangerous in connection with other acts. Intelligence investigations are looking for very low probability events that are buried in patterns of innocent interactions.

The problem with that is you can't wait to have a file until you have evidence linking some specific individual to a specific crime if you want to be able to anticipate crimes. An intelligence agency must connect the dots. the "dots" are things that don't mean anything on their own but only acquire their true meaning in relation to a lot of other dots, themselves also meaningless on their own. The dots are people as well as actions, and the dots cannot be collected without some kind of file.

An intelligence agency that promises to not even open a file until they suspect an individual of a crime is promising to always be one step behind.

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